Old Patriot's Pen

Personal pontifications of an old geezer born 200 years too late.

NOTE The views I express on this site are mine and mine alone. Nothing I say should be construed as being "official" or the views of any group, whether I've been a member of that group or not. The advertisings on this page are from Google, and do not constitute an endorsement on my part.

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Location: Colorado Springs, Colorado, United States

I've been everywhere That was the title of a hit country-and-western song from the late 1950's, originally sung by Hank Snow, and made famous by Johnny Cash. I resemble that! My 26-year career in the Air Force took me to more than sixty nations on five continents - sometimes only for a few minutes, other times for as long as four years at a time. In all that travel, I also managed to find the perfect partner, help rear three children, earn more than 200 hours of college credit, write more than 3000 reports, papers, documents, pamphlets, and even a handful of novels, take about 10,000 photographs, and met a huge crowd of interesting people. I use this weblog and my personal website here to document my life, and discuss my views on subjects I find interesting.

Saturday, October 02, 2004

Is it getting warmer?
Not in Colorado!

The local newspaper, the Gazette had a spate of news reports in their "News" section recently about global warming. "Scientists" were predicting that the number and severity of hurricanes was increasing because of global warming, and what happened to Florida was "proof". This and several other articles that appeared in the newspaper over the last two weeks kept hitting the fact that things were getting much warmer, and it was all mankind's fault. Almost all of the stories were "courtesy" of the Associated Press.

Just a couple of weeks ago, however, the Gazette had reported that the average summer temperature for Colorado Springs was 64.7 degrees - the coolest summer measured in nearly a century.

Colorado Springs isn't the only place to have cool summers, as this article at indicates.

I'm not convinced human beings are making the earth warmer. There are just too many variables we have little or no hard knowledge of, there's too much politics involved, and the entire burden of the costs of approving the current treaty to try to do something about it will be borne by the United States. That last item is the one that provides the largest red flag - it's a sure sign the entire fiasco is an attempt to disrupt or destroy the economy of the most powerful nation on earth, and that our competitors are behind it. If you can't out-work us, can't out-produce us, or can't out-think us, force us into a box and tie an anchor around it. That's about what Kyoto is all about.

Let's look at some facts: Total greenhouse gasses in the earth's atmosphere include water vapor (95%), carbon dioxide (4.5%), methane, chlorofluorocarbons, dirt, soot, and a handful of others (0,5%). Figures of the percentages differ, but never by more than one or two percentage points, mostly fluctuating between water vapor and carbon dioxide.

The critics say that, because mankind is burning fossil fuel, the amount of CO2 is increasing drastically - maybe by as much as 2% over the next 50 years. That would give us a relative split of 93% water vapor, 6.5% carbon dioxide, and 0.5% all others. The big problem is, the computer models designed to calculate these "excessive" changes are so poor they can't even duplicate the changes that have taken place since they were originally written, ten years ago. Yet we're supposed to accept that they're capable of predicting what will happen for the next 100 years or more. Do these people think we're really that stupid? Unfortunately, many of them do, and there are some people who are.

Nor would Kyoto actually do any real good. Here are some quotes from the Seattle Times from September 28, 2004:

White House officials reject the notion that Bush is not fully engaged in the fight to limit U.S. greenhouse gases. The Bush plan calls for investment in hydrogen and other alternative-energy sources, and financial incentives to use new technologies. And Bush calls for voluntary — rather than mandatory — efforts to curb greenhouse emissions from power plants.

"We do not believe there is a need, at this time, for a new overarching regulatory program that would cap and control carbon dioxide," said James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, in an interview with The Seattle Times.

Connaughton said such a "wrong-headed" program would result in "devastating job loss" in America as energy-intensive industries shifted more production to countries that have no such restrictions.

The result would be a weaker America with no net global reduction in greenhouse gases because of the increased production elsewhere, Connaughton said.

Unfortunately, that's EXACTLY what the group that developed the Kyoto treaty want - especially a weaker US.

There are four things that affect climate in our world: solar output, the water vapor cycle, natural scientific events (volcanos, earthquakes, storm cycles, etc.), and the actions of mankind. I've read three differing reports on how much mankind affects climate, but the figures range from 1.1% to less than 0.01%. Even at the upper figure, there isn't much impact. Nor will Kyoto, if implemented tomorrow, have much effect on global warming: no figure shows a change of more than 0.05 degrees - well within the margin of error of EVERY prediction that suggests a warming of of 1.5 degrees or greater. An increase or decrease in solar output, on the other hand, of 0.05% can have an effect of changing average temperatures on the majority of the earth's surface by 3 to 5 degrees. We don't have a clue on how water vapor affects this cycle, and there aren't many people studying it - it's just too complicated!

I am extremely leary of people screaming about Global Warming: in my personal opinion, 99% of them fall into two categories - dupes and connivers. The connivers are after your wallet, and the dupes aren't bright enough to figure it out.

Don't take my word about what I write. Check out these sites and make up your own mind.
Online resources:


CO2 Science
Cato Institute report Excellent summary
Junk Science Global Warming links page
Cato Institute links page for global warming
Bjorn Lomborg
Tech Central Station
Spiked News
Town Hall, Energy & Environment news
National Center for Policy Analysis
Competetive Enterprise Institute
John Locke Foundation
The Federalist Society
A Better Earth Organization

Middle Ground

Global Warming.Org
National Academies report on climate change.
Global Warming Links Much to think about!
Yahoo Links page
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
US Geological Survey
Study Works Online Read with an open mind - and a bit of caution.
Global Warming, a chilling prospect

The other side

Global Warming International Conference
New Scientist
Natural Resources Defense Council
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The Discovery of Global Warming
Sierra Club
PBS - NOVA Series on Global Warming
Global Warming Information Center
US Global Change Research Information Office
Union of Concerned Scientists

A Google search of "Global Warming" produced more than 1.8 million hits. The majority of them were simply different articles from the same group of people. I went through and selected the ones I felt provided the largest amount of information to support their hypotheses.

Nothing can be engraved in stone at this point - there's just far too much we don't know yet.


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